This will be a quick weekly positional breakdown for some of my favorite picks across FanDuel and DraftKings. Hope everyone wins some money!
Deshaun Watson ($6700 DK, $7900 FD) – The Vegas line opened at 44, and has already grown by 2.5, meaning people are expecting a high scoring game. He’s also facing a team that allows a touchdown pass on 7% of throws, highest in the league. Watson himself has thrown a touchdown on 8% of throws, also highest in the league. His hot streak isn’t going to continue forever, but while his price is bearable on both sites, we can continue riding him for a high floor with upside.
Kevin Hogan ($4600 DK, $6100 FD) – Staying in that same game, Kevin Hogan is another good option, especially in tournaments. Hogan has run on 19% of his dropbacks over his career, which is the highest percentage in the NFL, albeit on a small sample size. If he rushes for 50 yards and a touchdown, that’s already 11 points. If he throws for only 100 yards and a touchdown on a secondary that I believe is overrated, that’s a total of 21. It’s easy to see the upside he can reach, and I don’t think too many people will be on him, which is why I’ll definitely have exposure in tournaments.
Leverage Play – Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. Minnesota is known as a tough defense, especially with Xavier Rhodes at corner. This, along with many cheaper options in good spots, should lead people to avoid Rodgers in lineups. This is probably the lowest ownership percentage Rodgers will have all season, so it’s a great opportunity to get him in a large gpps.
Other guys I don’t mind – Cousins (Both sites, all formats), Brees (DK both formats, FD GPP), Rivers (GPP only)
Guys I hate – Not a big fan of Tom Brady this week. Highest salary on both sites and he’s banged up. He said he’s playing, but Gronk said the same last week. Not a situation I want to be in.
Kareem Hunt ($8200 DK, 9300 FD) – Kareem Hunt is the most expensive running back on FanDuel and the second most expensive back on DraftKings. This may lead some people to look for discounts elsewhere, but on a looser slate, I think he’s a great cash play who does have some tournament upside. Hunt has now touched the ball 25 times in back-to-back games, putting to rest usage concerns that I had when he was outproducing his usage rate earlier in the season. The Chiefs are home favorites in a game that should have them leading, which should pave the way for another good game for Hunt.
Jerick McKinnon ($4100 DK, $5600 FD) – McKinnon’s price wasn’t affected by his performance in week 5 because he played on Monday night after week 6 prices were already calculated. This makes him a pretty simple plug and play in cash games. Barring injury, there’s almost no way he doesn’t reach the 12 points he needs to meet value on DraftKings. Even if he does, by how much can he miss? His floor is probably around 10, which won’t kill you because using him allows you to pay up at other positions. He also has a nice ceiling whether the Vikings lead or trail, making him tournament viable.
Mark Ingram ($4400 DK, $5900 FD) / Alvin Kamara ($4500 DK, $5800 FD) – This is kinda cheating on my part, but I haven’t yet chosen who I’m going with. They’re $100 apart on both sites, so money certainly shouldn’t be a problem. Both should have good games coming off the bye, but we don’t know how much of a bigger role Kamara has carved out, if any. If you told me Kamara will get 10 rushing carries, I’d probably choose him. Ingram has the safer floor for cash, but Kamara’s increased involvement in the passing game could give him a higher ceiling. Both players are rosterable in all formats.
Leverage Play – Le’Veon Bell will surely be avoided on DraftKings this week, with a price that is higher than the nearest running back by over $1000. He’s not in a great spot, but he still is the best player in football, capable of scoring 30-40 points in any given week. No way I can play him in cash, but it won’t take much exposure in tournaments to be overweight on him.
Other guys I don’t mind – Fournette (nice floor), Anderson (lol @Giants offense), Gordon (probably low owned), Ajayi (low ownership with recency bias), McGuire (low ownership with news of Forte playing, GPP only)
Guys I hate – Can’t trust Hyde in cash at all.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8100 DK, $8000 FD) – I’ll start off by saying this: Hopkins got bailed out last week with his three touchdowns. When you only have 4 receptions, it’s unlikely you are going to meet value. If he had 4 receptions on 5 targets, I would definitely be fading in a spot when people are chasing touchdowns. However, Hopkins didn’t have 5 targets, he had 12. This has been the story for most of the season, as Hopkins has surpassed 11 targets in 4 out of 5 games thus far. That’s pretty ridiculous, but there’s no reason this should stop. Watson has found his favorite receiver and his safety blanket, which gives Hopkins a very nice floor week in and week out.
Adam Thielen ($6000 DK, $6500 FD) – The Packers secondary has yet to figure it out, and I don’t think they will anytime soon. No offense should fear going up against them, and no DFS player should be afraid to target players against them. Speaking of targets, Thielen has had 8 targets in three straight games. Now that Diggs has been ruled out, he’s likely to see even more. Great cash play, some tournament upside.
DeSean Jackson ($5800 DK, $6400 FD) – Jackson’s role is growing in the offense as him and Winston learn each other’s tendencies. Now comes a matchup with a corner that has struggled to say the least, especially against the deep ball. Torrey Smith burned Bethel last week for a long touchdown, and Jackson can easily do the same. He’s borderline cash viable with some safer plays out there, but I will certainly be overweight in tournaments.
Leverage Play – Julio Jones has yet to catch a touchdown this season. Almost everyone will choose Hopkins over him, giving way to a great opportunity for those willing to pay the steep price. If he goes for 30 points, he’s going to win somebody a GPP.
Other guys I don’t mind (Such a deep week for wide receivers) – Crabtree, Fitzgerald, Allen, Landry (GPP only), Hogan, Garcon, Gabriel (GPP only), Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper (DK GPP), Louis (so cheap)
Guys I hate – Brandin Cooks is priced like a stud, but has surpassed 11 FanDuel points once this season. No thanks with a banged up Tom Brady.
Ryan Griffin (4000 DK, $4500 FD) – Tight ends against Cleveland is something has been proven every week. He’s had one big week, and if the Cleveland trend continues, he can be in line for another one. you’re not risking much with that minimum price on FanDuel.
Zach Miller ($2900 DK) – For a guy who got 7 targets in Trubisky’s first start, this is a great price to pay on DraftKings. I also think he’s the only cheap guy with a floor above 3.
Leverage Play – Jordan Reed is in a good spot if he’s mostly healthy. He’s dealing with issues all over his body and confirmed that he’s not at 100%, but he is playing Sunday. In a good matchup against a team with a weak defense, this could be a Reed smash spot if he gets his full snap count.
Other guys I don’t mind – Henry, ASJ, Rudolph, Kittle (GPP only), Njoku (GPP only)
Guys I hate – Eric Ebron is not playable. Even if he somehow puts up 15 points this week, I won’t be mad at myself. He has done nothing to show he is capable of catching NFL passes, and until major improvement is seen, he won’t be in any of my lineups.
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