Hey Everyone! The First 4 weeks of the NFL DFS season have definitely been interesting, with a few odd weeks already in the books. This will be a quick positional breakdown for some of my favorite picks across FanDuel and DraftKings.
Brian Hoyer ($4700 DK, $6500 FD) – San Francisco is not a good team. Luckily for them, the Colts are just as bad, especially defensively. Sitting at just $4,700 on DraftKings, I will be plugging him into my cash lineups. Hoyer has had at least 35 pass attempts in 3/4 weeks, and that should help him easily meet value over on DraftKings. He’s still fine on FanDuel, where salary is much looser, but I will likely be looking elsewhere.
Aaron Rodgers ($8100 DK, $9500 FD) – As I just said, pricing is looser on FanDuel, which is exactly why I will be playing Aaron Rodgers in a handful of lineups. The Vegas total is up over 50 points, Ty Montgomery is unlikely to play, and the secondary in Dallas is nothing to write home about. It would be no surprise if Rodgers leads all Quarterbacks in scoring this week.
Leverage Play – Russel Wilson is quietly raking DFS over the past two weeks. He is unlikely to carry high ownership, which can be very beneficial in tournament lineups. The Vegas total has grown 2 points since the lines came out, and without much of a run game, Wilson will have to keep throwing.
Other guys I don’t mind – Brissett (Both sites, all formats), McCown (DK cash, FD GPP), Cutler (GPP only)
Guys I hate – Andy Dalton (DK), Eli Manning (DK)
Le’Veon Bell ($9500 on both) – Teams have been running on the Jacksonville Jaguars, and this is the best running back in the league. He will always carry ownership, but that’s the price to pay for a guaranteed 20 touches. He’s playable in all formats.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800 DK, $8,900 FD) – Another guy with a guaranteed 20 touches, this time in a game with the highest Vegas total. Green Bay is legitimately a bottom-five defense in this league. The only way this can go poorly is if Green Bay takes a massive lead early.
Carlos Hyde ($6,900 DK, $7,200 FD) – Hyde has been very consistent, and in a game where the 49ers should stay close, Hyde should get his usage and remain productive all game long. Note: Check for injury news
Leverage Play – Jay Ajayi has had one very good game and two very bad ones. Mike Pouncey has hinted that the Dolphins plan to run this week, and if Mariota is out, the Dolphins will likely have a lead. Ajayi is an elite back, and if he get’s his touches, he can have a huge game.
Other guys I don’t mind – Ellington (cheap on DK), Blount (cheap on DK), Gordon (cheap on DK), Mixon (low ownership with recency bias), Duke Johnson (basically their slot receiver)
Guys I hate – Arizona running backs not named Ellington
Jordy Nelson ($8,100 DK, $8,600 FD) – This is my favorite Wide Receiver on FanDuel. Again, the Vegas total is the highest total on the slate, but that’s not all. Jordy Nelson will be likely be without Devante Adams AND Ty Montgomery. That’s the #1 running back and the #2 receiver. That usage has to go somewhere, and some of it will surely go to Nelson. Nelson is the #1 receiver on a per game basis on both FanDuel and DraftKings (he missed his week 2 game), he has been Rodgers’ favorite target for years, and he’s facing a #bad secondary. I get it if he’s not in your cash lineup on DraftKings with value available amongst 6K receivers, but I will just be locking and loading Jordy on FanDuel.
Randall Cobb ($6,700 DK, 6,600 FD) – See: Jordy Nelson. he’s not as good, but he will grab those full ppr points on DraftKings, especially if Adams is out.
Dez Bryant ($6,500 DK) – I just don’t understand the price. Dez has been good against bad secondaries, and bad against good ones. Green Bay is not a good secondary, and DraftKings decides to price Dez at his lowest price this season. I don’t get it, but I’ll be using him, probably even with lineups that have Elliott.
Devante Parker ($6,600 DK, $6,100 FD) – If Cutler has anything, and I mean anything, left in the tank, we’re going to see it this game. Parker has been his favorite target, who’s physical attributes give him great touchdown equity. Probably a great play on FanDuel when all is said and done.
Leverage Play – Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant. If Bell isn’t scoring the touchdowns this week, one of these two will. Brown can score over 20 fantasy points any week, and Bryant really only needs one long pass to meet value. Both are interesting tournament options.
Other guys I don’t mind – Jaron Brown (minimum price on FD), Aldrick Robinson (if Goodwin does not play), Garcon (good pivot off Aldrick)
Guys I hate – Hard to hate receivers, but hard to play Alshon at his price against Peterson.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,500 DK, $5,500 FD) – 10 Targets in two games and Cleveland is not good against tight ends. He’ll meet value pretty easily, anything more than that is just a cherry on top.
Evan Engram ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD) – Engram has quietly became one of Eli’s favorite targets. I Prefer ASJ, but he’s also a fine play.
Leverage Play – Martellus Bennett might have the highest ceiling amongst tight ends this week. This would be a way to get exposure to that game while being able to pivot in other spots.
Other guys I don’t mind – Chargers TE (would have to guess which one gets more work)
Guys I hate – We’re talking about tight ends, c’mon.
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